How Well Have the Boston Bruins Drafted Since 2000?

For those of you who haven’t seen my earlier post(s) I am going through each of the 30 teams and breaking down how they have drafted over the past 15 years. The other teams can be found here:

• Anaheim Ducks
• Arizona Coyotes
• Boston Bruins
• Buffalo Sabres
• Calgary Flames
• Carolina Hurricanes
• Chicago Blackhawks
• Colorado Avalanche
• Columbus Blue Jackets
• Dallas Stars
• Detroit Red Wings
• Edmonton Oilers
• Florida Panthers
• Los Angeles Kings
• Minnesota Wild
• Montreal Canadiens
• Nashville Predators
• New Jersey Devils
• New York Islanders
• New York Rangers
• Ottawa Senators
• Philadelphia Flyers
• Pittsburgh Penguins
• San Jose Sharks
• St. Louis Blues
• Tampa Bay Lightning
• Toronto Maple Leafs
• Vancouver Canucks
• Washington Capitals
• Winnipeg Jets

To make this post I went through all of the Boston Bruins picks since the 2000 draft.

Many of these players were drafted by Boston but traded to other teams where they played most of their careers. Despite playing most of their careers on other teams I still used their full NHL stats for two reasons:

1) The team drafted players they believed to have potential; whether or not they fulfilled their potential on that team or not doesn’t necessarily matter. The important thing is that the team recognized a players true potential and the players that were selected lived up to it.

2) I was lazy.

You could argue that they wouldn’t turn out to be the same players if they stayed on the team, and you’re probably right, but I decided to do it this way so that I could specifically focus on the teams drafting ability and not the player development.

TOTAL PICK DISTRIBUTION

Position	Drafted	GP	PTS
Center	27	2817	1402
LW	12	1011	601
RW	19	1879	1156
D	29	2719	497
G	10	104	N/A
Unspecified	9	60	21
Total	106	8590	3677

• 25 of 106 players drafted since 2000 have played 50+ games in the NHL (24%)
• 19 of 106 players drafted since 2000 have played 100+ games in the NHL (18%)
• Draftees (incl. goalies) since 2000 have played a total of 8590 games
• Skaters (excl. goalies) drafted since 2000 have played a total of 8496 games and accumulated 3677 points (0.43 PPG)
• Best draft year: 2006 – Kessel (5th), Lucic (50th), Marchand (71st)
• Worst draft year: 2007 – First round pick Zach Hamill (8th overall) was the only player drafted to play an NHL game. He played 20 NHL games over 3 seasons before playing in the AHL and KHL.

FIRST ROUND PICKS

Position	Drafted	GP	PTS
Center	2	180	66
LW	1	46	27
RW	4	1189	831
D	5	1307	262
G	2	62	N/A
Unspecified	0	0	0
Total	14	2784	1186

• 7 of 14 players drafted in the 1st round have played 100+ games in the NHL (50%)
• First round picks have played a total of 2784 games and accumulated 1186 points (0.43 PPG)
• Notable picks: Kessel (5th, 2006), Stuart (21st, 2003), S. Morrisonn (19th, 2001), Seguin (2nd, 2010), Hamilton (9th, 2011)

SECOND ROUND PICKS

Position	Drafted	GP	PTS
Center	7	1659	1092
LW	3	567	342
RW	3	35	11
D	3	0	0
G	0	0	N/A
Unspecified	1	49	18
Total	17	2310	1463

• 4 of 17 players drafted in the 2nd round have played 100+ games in the NHL (24%)
• Second round picks have played a total of 2310 games and accumulated 1463 points (0.63 PPG)
• Notable picks: P. Bergeron (45th, 2003), Lucic (50th, 2006), Krejci (63rd, 2004), Hilbert (37th, 2000)

THIRD ROUND PICKS

Position	Drafted	GP	PTS
Center	1	10	1
LW	3	377	228
RW	2	2	0
D	3	0	0
G	1	41	N/A
Unspecified	0	0	0
Total	10	430	229

• 1 of 10 players drafted in the 3rd round have played 100+ games in the NHL (10%)
• Third round picks have played a total of 430 games and accumulated 229 points (0.53 PPG)
• Notable picks: Marchand (71st, 2006), M. Hutchinson (77th, 2008)

FOURTH TO NINTH ROUND PICKS

Position	Drafted	GP	PTS
Center	17	968	243
LW	5	21	4
RW	10	653	314
D	18	1412	235
G	7	1	N/A
Unspecified	8	11	3
Total	65	3066	799

• 7 of 65 players drafted between the 4th and 9th rounds have played 100+ games in the NHL (11%)
• Fourth to ninth round picks have played 3066 games and accumulated 799 points (0.26 PPG)
• Notable picks: Versteeg (134th, 2004), N. Thompson (183rd, 2003), A. Alberts (179th, 2001), Jurcina (241st, 2001), Sobotka (106th, 2005), Hunwick (224th, 2004), S. Griffith (131rd, 2012)

FUN FACTS

• Despite having one of the deepest goaltending prospect lists in the league, Boston has never drafted a goaltender who became a starter (best is WPG backup Hutchinson)
• Similar to Arizona/Phoenix, half of Boston’s draft picks have been center’s or defensemen

WHAT WE LEARNED

Despite drafting 10 less players than the Coyotes over the past 15 seasons Boston’s draftees have played 2463 more games and accumulated 1327 more points. Even against the successful drafting Ducks (who drafted 4 more players than Boston), Bruins draftees have played 426 less games but only have 19 less points.

With the above information you would assume that the Bruins have drafted very well over the past 15 years however upon closer look the data may be misleading. Looking at the number of draftees who play an extended period of time in the NHL (100+ games) reveals a few ‘beasts’ skew the data in Boston’s favour. 19 of Boston’s 106 draftees (18%) have played 100+ games in the NHL. This is relatively better than Arizona’s 15% but significantly lower than Anaheim’s 24% success rate. What this implies is that Anaheim has drafted a number of good players while Boston has drafted a number of busts and a few excellent players who have skewed the data.

This isn’t to necessarily say Boston hasn’t drafted poorly, in fact it may even be a good thing. While some could argue that Boston has gotten lucky by striking gold a few times and striking out the rest of the time others could argue that they’d rather draft a guy like Patrice Bergeron every once in a while than draft a bunch of, say, Tim Brent’s or Peter Holland’s. It’s all a matter of perspective.

Looking specifically at the first round, 7 of the Bruins last 14 draft picks have played 100+ games in the NHL which is a fairly disappointing success rate. To put this number into perspective, Arizona, who has drafted very poorly in the past, has had 53% of their first round picks play 100+ games. Once again though the positive takeaway is that Boston might draft a few busts in a row and then select a guy like Phil Kessel or Tyler Seguin.

The second round is much of the same story. The average points per game for a Boston second round draftee is 0.63 PPG (compared to Arizona’s 0.19 PPG and Anaheim’s 0.16 PPG). A lot of Boston’s second round picks have been busts but guys like Bergeron, Lucic, and Krejci really make up for their average drafting history.

The third rounds and higher haven’t bared nearly as much fruit for the Bruins. 1 of their last 10 picks in the third round have played more than 100+ games, however, this could be attributed to a small sample size considering they’ve traded away 5 of their last 15 third round picks.

Like most teams, every once in a while Boston finds a hidden gem in the late rounds and their success rate (11%) is on par with the likes of Anaheim (11%) and TSN’s expected success rate of 10 to 15 percent.