How Well Have the Carolina Hurricanes Drafted Since 2000?

1280px-Carolina_Hurricanes.svg

For those of you who haven’t seen my earlier post(s) I am going through each of the 30 teams and breaking down how they have drafted over the past 15 years. The other teams can be found here:

To make this post I went through all of the Carolina Hurricanes picks since the 2000 draft.

Many of these players were drafted but traded to other teams where they played most of their careers. Despite playing most of their careers on other teams I still used their full NHL stats for two reasons:

1) The team drafted players they believed to have potential; whether or not they fulfilled their potential on that team or not doesn’t necessarily matter. The important thing is that the team recognized a players true potential and the players that were selected lived up to it.

2) You could argue that they wouldn’t turn out to be the same players if they stayed on the team, and you’re probably right, but I decided to do it this way so that I could specifically focus on the teams drafting ability and not the player development.

TOTAL PICK DISTRIBUTION

Position Drafted GP PTS
Center 14 2001 1110
LW 20 1576 750
RW 7 4 0
D 42 2281 609
G 14 686 17
Unspecified 5 2 0
Total 102 6550 2486
  • 23 of 102 players drafted since 2000 have played 50+ games in the NHL (23%)
  • 17 of 102 players drafted since 2000 have played 100+ games in the NHL (17%)
  • Draftees (incl. goalies) since 2000 have played a total of 6550 games
  • Skaters (excl. goalies) drafted since 2000 have played a total of 5864 games and accumulated 2469 points (0.42 PPG)
  • Best draft year: 2010 – Skinner (7th), Faulk (37th), F. Andersen (187th)
  • Worst draft year: 2009 – Philippe Paradis (27th) never played an NHL game. 20 games played total (2 points) between 6 draft picks.

FIRST ROUND PICKS

Position Drafted GP PTS
Center 4 1607 1017
LW 3 1027 636
RW 0 0 0
D 4 658 255
G 1 512 11
Unspecified 0 0 0
Total 12 3804 1919
  • 8 of 12 players drafted in the 1st round have played 100+ games in the NHL (67%)
  • First round picks have played a total of 3804 games and accumulated 1908 points (0.58 PPG)
  • Notable picks: E. Staal (2nd, 2003), Ladd (4th, 2004), J. Johnson (3rd, 2005), C. Ward (25th, 2002), J. Skinner (7th, 2010), B. Sutter (11th, 2007), Lindholm (5th, 2013)

SECOND ROUND PICKS

Position Drafted GP PTS
Center 3 394 93
LW 2 17 5
RW 0 0 0
D 6 627 224
G 2 80 2
Unspecified 1 0 0
Total 14 1118 324
  • 4 of 14 players drafted in the 2nd round have played 100+ games in the NHL (29%)
  • Second round picks have played a total of 1118 games and accumulated 322 points (0.31 PPG)
  • Notable picks: J. Faulk (37th, 2010), McBain (63rd, 2006), Zigmmanis (46th, 2001), J. Peters (38th, 2004), V. Rask (42nd, 2011)

THIRD ROUND PICKS

Position Drafted GP PTS
Center 1 0 0
LW 5 358 73
RW 1 0 0
D 6 28 5
G 1 0 0
Unspecified 0 0 0
Total 14 386 78
  • 2 of 14 players drafted in the 3rd round have played 100+ games in the NHL (14%)
  • Third round picks have played a total of 386 games and accumulated 78 points (0.20 PPG)
  • Notable picks: Bowman (72nd, 2007), Bayda (80th, 2000)

FOURTH TO NINTH ROUND PICKS

Position Drafted GP PTS
Center 6 0 0
LW 10 174 36
RW 6 4 0
D 26 968 125
G 10 94 4
Unspecified 4 2 0
Total 62 1242 165
  • 3 of 62 players drafted between the 4th and 9th rounds have played 100+ games in the NHL (5%)
  • Fourth to ninth round picks have played 1242 games and accumulated 161 points (0.14 PPG)
  • Notable picks: Wallin (97th, 2000), Strachan (137th, 2003), F. Andersen (187th, 2010)

FUN FACT

  • The Hurricanes haven’t drafted a right winger in the first or second round for the last 15 years; the earliest they’ve drafted a right winger is late in the third round.

WHAT WE LEARNED

/u/Ichibani made a great suggestion in my Boston post that I should further analyze where in the first round players are drafted since the 1st overall is very different from 30th overall. Based off this TSN article, which estimates a player’s probability of playing 100+ NHL games based off their round selection, I determined how well a team drafted in the first round relative to their pick placement. In other words, I determined if a team drafted well or poorly in the first round by comparing their success rate to the historical league average.

1st Round Pick Position # of Picks Probability of Success
1 – 5 4 96%
6 – 10 2 74%
11 – 15 4 54%
16 – 20 0 62%
21 – 30 2 58%

The majority of Carolina’s first round picks have been in the top 15 resulting in an expected success rate of 69 to 75 percent; Carolina fell just outside of this range, however, they tied the Anaheim Ducks with the best success rate of teams studied so far (67%). 2011 draftee Ryan Murphy fell just outside of this 100+ game mark with 89 games played, however, he’s starting to look NHL ready and will likely surpass this mark next season. If you exclude 2014 first round pick Haydn Fleury who spent the majority of his first season developing in the WHL the Hurricanes only have two first round picks who haven’t panned out in the past 15 years (Paradis [2009] and Knyazev [2001])

Round Expected Success Rate Actual Success Rate
1 69 – 75% 67%
2 26 – 32% 29%
3 21 – 26% 14%
4+ 10 – 15% 5%

The Hurricanes have only had 12 first round picks since 2000 which is the lowest of all teams studied so far. In addition, their 102 picks overall through the last 15 years are the lowest of any team we’ve studied so far (11 picks less than the average team). Looking at their previous successes drafting in the first round it’s a little surprisingly that they’ve traded away so many first round picks but a closer look at the traded picks may reveal why. They traded their 2006 first round pick in January of 2006 in part of a package to acquire Doug Weight who was instrumental in helping win the cup that season. They traded their 2012 first round pick (8th overall) in June 2012 in part of a package deal that brought J. Staal to play with his brother in Carolina.

Carolina has made a number of solid picks in the second round resulting in roughly 30 percent of their picks playing 100+ games in the NHL which places them second next to Anaheim (33%) in second round success. None of the players they’ve picked have eclipsed 150 points, however, as of late the majority of their picks have been defensemen who have developed into NHL regulars. 2010 draftee Justin Faulk seems destined to become their best second round pick after having an excellent 2014-15 season (15G, 49 PTS, 82 GP).

With a success rate of 14 percent the third round is the first area of disappointment when it comes to Carolina’s drafting. Only two of their draftees eclipsed the 100 games mark and neither had more than 40 points in the NHL.

The fourth round and higher has been an even larger disappointment for the Hurricanes. 26 of their 62 picks in these rounds have been defensemen, however, Wallin is the only success story in that group. Carolina’s most successful pick in these rounds might very well be goaltender Frederik Andersen who refused to sign with the Canes after being drafted 187th overall; he re-entered the draft in 2012 and was picked in the third round where he stayed to become Anaheim’s starting goaltender.

While their drafting success drops off in the later rounds Carolina’s consistent success in the first two rounds has the Canes placed as one of the strongest drafting teams I’ve studied so far.

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