How Well Have the New York Rangers Drafted Since 2000?

2000px-New_York_Rangers.svg

*For those of you who haven’t seen my earlier post(s) I am going through each of the 30 teams and breaking down how they have drafted over the past 15 years. The other teams can be found here:

To make this post I went through all of the New York Rangers picks between 2000 and 2012.

Many of these players were drafted but traded to other teams where they played most of their careers. Despite playing most of their careers on other teams I still used their full NHL stats for two reasons:

1) The team drafted players they believed to have potential; whether or not they fulfilled their potential on that team doesn’t necessarily matter. The important thing is that the team recognized a players true potential and the players that were selected lived up to it.

2) You could argue that they wouldn’t turn out to be the same players if they stayed on the team, and you’re probably right, but I decided to do it this way so that I could specifically focus on the teams drafting ability and not the player development.

TOTAL PICK DISTRIBUTION

Position Drafted GP PTS
Center 23 2983 1139
LW 25 1533 611
RW 10 1057 446
D 29 3033 1047
G 7 797 18
Unspecified 10 0 0
Total 104 9403 3261
  • 30 of 104 players drafted since 2000 have played 50+ games in the NHL (29%)
  • 25 of 104 players drafted since 2000 have played 100+ games in the NHL (24%)
  • Draftees (incl. goalies) since 2000 have played a total of 9403 games
  • Skaters (excl. goalies) drafted since 2000 have played a total of 8606 games and accumulated 3243 points (0.38 PPG)
  • Draftees since 2000 have an average of 33 points and 90 games played
  • Best draft year: 2000 – No first round pick. Dominic Moore (95th), Henrik Lundqvist (205th) OR 2004 – Al Montoya (6th), Lauri Korpokoski (19th), Brandon Dubinsky (60th), Ryan Callahan (127th)
  • Worst draft year: 2003 – Hugh Jessiman (12th), Ivan Baranka (50th), Kenny Roche (75th), Corey Potter (122nd), Nigel Dawes (149th), Ivan Dornic (176th), Phillip Furrer (179th), Chris Holt (180th), Dylan Reese (209th), Jan Marek (243rd)

Best Picks Since 2000

  • Forward: Ryan Callahan/Brandon Dubinsky
  • Defenseman: Marek Zidlicky
  • Goaltender: Henrik Lundqvist
  • Most Games by a Draftee: Marek Zidlicky (783)
  • Most Points by a Draftee: Marek Zidlicky (401)

FIRST ROUND PICKS

Position Drafted GP PTS
Center 1 114 33
LW 2 638 245
RW 2 2 0
D 5 969 295
G 2 175 1
Unspecified 0 0 0
Total 12 1898 574
  • 6 of 12 players drafted in the 1st round have played 100+ games in the NHL (50%)
  • First round picks have played a total of 1898 games and accumulated 573 points (0.33 PPG)
  • First round picks have an average of 57 points and 158 games played
  • Notable picks: Marc Staal (12th, 2005), Lauri Korpikoski (19th, 2004), Michael Del Zotto (20th, 2008), Chris Kreider (19th, 2009), J.T. Miller (15th, 2011), Al Montoya (6th, 2004)

SECOND ROUND PICKS

Position Drafted GP PTS
Center 7 1470 777
LW 3 35 2
RW 0 0 0
D 4 858 267
G 1 0 0
Unspecified 1 0 0
Total 16 2363 1046
  • 5 of 16 players drafted in the 2nd round have played 100+ games in the NHL (31%)
  • Second round picks have played a total of 2363 games and accumulated 1046 points (0.44 PPG)
  • Second round picks have an average of 70 points and 148 games played
  • Notable picks: Fedor Tyutin (40th, 2001), Brandon Dubinsky (60th. 2004), Artem Anisimov (54th, 2006), Derek Stepan (51st, 2008), Marc-Andre Cliché (56th, 2005)

THIRD ROUND PICKS

Position Drafted GP PTS
Center 3 801 240
LW 6 36 4
RW 0 0 0
D 2 30 7
G 0 0 0
Unspecified 2 0 0
Total 13 867 251
  • 2 of 13 players drafted in the 3rd round have played 100+ games in the NHL (15%)
  • Third round picks have played a total of 867 games and accumulated 251 points (0.29 PPG)
  • Third round picks have an average of 19 points and 67 games played
  • Notable picks: Dominic Moore (95th, 2000), Garth Murray (79th, 2001)

FOURTH TO NINTH ROUND PICKS

Position Drafted GP PTS
Center 12 598 89
LW 14 824 360
RW 8 1055 446
D 18 1176 478
G 4 622 17
Unspecified 7 0 0
Total 63 4275 1390
  • 12 of 63 players drafted between the 4th and 9th rounds have played 100+ games in the NHL (19%)
  • Fourth to ninth round picks have played 4275 games and accumulated 1373 points (0.38 PPG)
  • Fourth to ninth round picks have an average of 23 points and 68 games played
  • Notable picks: Henrik Lundqvist (205th, 2000), Marek Zidlicky (176th, 2001), Ryan Callahan (127th, 2004), Carl Hagelin (168th, 2007), Jesper Fast (157th, 2010), Dale Weise (111th, 2008), Tom Pyatt (107th, 2005), Petr Prucha (240th, 2002), Nate Guenin (127th, 2002), Corey Potter (122nd, 2003), Nigel Dawes (149th, 2003), Joey Crabb (226th, 2002), Ryan Hollweg (238th, 2001)

WHAT WE LEARNED

Since the 1st overall is very different from 30th overall I used this TSN article, which estimates a player’s probability of playing 100+ NHL games based off their round selection, to determined how well a team drafted in the first round relative to their pick placement. In other words, I determined if a team drafted well or poorly in the first round by comparing their success rate to the historical league average.

1st Round Pick Position # of Picks Probability of Success
1 – 5 0 96%
6 – 10 3 74%
11 – 15 3 54%
16 – 20 4 62%
21 – 30 2 58%

Between 2000 and 2012 the Rangers have not had a top five pick; the majority of their selections have been between 11th and 20th overall. With an expected success range of 59 to 65 percent the Rangers first round has been a little disappointing with a success rate of only 50 percent. It is worth noting that their 2007 first round pick, Alexei Cherepanov, unfortunately passed away during a KHL game in 2008 before ever getting a chance in the NHL. If we exclude him from the Rangers first round picks their success rate rises to 54 percent which is still below expectations.

Round Expected Success Rate Actual Success Rate
1 59 – 65% 50%
2 26 – 32% 31%
3 21 – 26% 15%
4+ 10 – 15% 19%

The Rangers first round struggles are most evident when we look at the best players they’ve drafted. Marc Staal is the group’s leader in game played with 540 and Lauri Korpikoski leads first round draftees in points with only 159. If Chris Kreider continues his level of play from last season he should easily become New York’s best first round pick in the last 15 years. The average Rangers first round draftee has 33 points and 90 games played which ranks last place in both categories.

The second round is a significant improvement over the first with five draftees playing more than 100 games and four draftees with more than 100 career points. Second round draftees averaged 13 more points than first round picks. Their points per game of 0.44 is drastically better than the first round PPG of 0.33. Second round picks Brandon Dubinsky and Derek Stepan combined (571) have practically the same number of points as all first round picks (573). League wide the Rangers second round ranks 6th in average points and  8th in average games played.

After showing improvement in the second round the Rangers drafted poorly in the third. Only two of their selections played more than 100 games with Dominic Moore being the only one to score more than 10 points. The third round has proved to be troublesome for a lot of teams which partially excuses the Rangers lackluster drafting.Their average points of 19 and average games played of 67 rank 10th and 9th respectively.

Continuing the ‘bad, good, bad’ pattern, the Rangers have drafted exceptionally well in late rounds. Their franchise goaltender Henrik Lundqvist was selected in the seventh round; their leader in points and games played Marek Zidlicky was selected in the sixth round; and their former captain Ryan Callahan was found in the fourth round. In total 12 of their draftees have gone on to play 100+ games, the most players of any team. Their success rate of 19 percent is also the highest in the league with the next best being Nashville and Columbus at only 16 percent. To top it all off their average points per player (23) and average games played (68) are both the highest in the league. It’s safe to say that the Rangers have been the best late round drafting team in the league over the last 15 years.

Looking at their drafting as a whole the Rangers have performed comparable to the current league average:

Category League Avg. Rangers Difference
Draftees 106 104 -2
100+ GP 23 25 +2
100+ GP (%) 21% 24% +3%
Total GP 8860 9403 +543
Skater PTS 3403 3243 -160
Skater PPG 0.40 0.38 -0.02
AVG PTS 36 33 -3
AVG GP 83 90 +7

Above average second round drafting and excellent depth round drafting helped the Rangers surpass the league average in most categories. New York’s inability to draft high caliber offensive players in the first round (or any round for that matter) resulted in their low point totals and points per game relative to other teams. As a whole, between 2000 and 2012, the Rangers have been an average drafting team

TL;DR – The Rangers first round drafting has arguably been the worst in the league. Their second round draftees have actually outperformed the first round in almost every way. Most teams have drafted poorly in the third round and New York joined that group with only one of their picks playing more than 100 NHL games. Despite disappointing drafting through the first three rounds the Rangers late round drafting has been the best in the league over the last 15 years. Overall the New York Rangers should rank around the middle of the pack in my final analysis.

Advertisements

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s