How Well Have the San Jose Sharks Drafted Since 2000?

SanJoseSharksLogo.svg
For those of you who haven’t seen my earlier post(s) I am going through each of the 30 teams and breaking down how they have drafted over the past 15 years. The other teams can be found here:

To make this post I went through all of the San Jose Sharks picks between 2000 and 2012.

Many of these players were drafted but traded to other teams where they played most of their careers. Despite playing most of their careers on other teams I still used their full NHL stats for two reasons:

1) The team drafted players they believed to have potential; whether or not they fulfilled their potential on that team doesn’t necessarily matter. The important thing is that the team recognized a players true potential and the players that were selected lived up to it.

2) You could argue that they wouldn’t turn out to be the same players if they stayed on the team, and you’re probably right, but I decided to do it this way so that I could specifically focus on the teams drafting ability and not the player development.

TOTAL PICK DISTRIBUTION

Position Drafted GP PTS
C 19 2847 1325
LW 12 2120 1011
RW 12 1328 558
D 31 2884 999
G 12 149 0
Unspecified 9 0 0
Total 95 9328 3893
  • 26 of 95 players drafted since 2000 have played 50+ games in the NHL (27%)
  • 22 of 95 players drafted since 2000 have played 100+ games in the NHL (23%)
  • Draftees (incl. goalies) since 2000 have played a total of 9328 games
  • Skaters (excl. goalies) drafted since 2000 have played a total of 9179 games and accumulated 3893 points (0.42 PPG)
  • Draftees since 2000 have an average of 47 points and 98 games played
  • Best draft year: 2003 – Milan Michalek (6th), Steve Bernier (16th), Matt Carle (47th), Joe Pavelski (205th)
  • Worst draft year: 2002 – Mike Morris (27th), Dan Spang (52nd). 7 draftees combined for 135 NHL GP and 16 points

Best Picks Since 2000

  • Forward: Joe Pavelski
  • Defenseman: Christian Ehrhoff/Marc-Edouard Vlasic/Matt Carle
  • Goaltender: Thomas Greiss/Alex Stalock
  • Most Games by a Draftee: Christian Ehrhoff (741)
  • Most Points by a Draftee: Joe Pavelski (485)

FIRST ROUND PICKS

Position Drafted GP PTS
C 2 1015 475
LW 3 832 488
RW 3 1269 552
D 2 27 6
G 0 0 0
Unspecified 1 0 0
Total 11 3143 1521
  • 7 of 11 players drafted in the 1st round have played 100+ games in the NHL (64%)
  • First round picks have played a total of 3143 games and accumulated 1521 points (0.48 PPG)
  • First round picks have an average of 138 points and 286 games played
  • Notable picks: Milan Michalek (6th, 2003), Marcel Goc (20th, 2001), Steve Bernier (16th, 2003), Devin Setoguchi (8th, 2005), Logan Couture (9th, 2007), Charlie Coyle (28th, 2010), Tomas Hertl (17th, 2012)

SECOND ROUND PICKS

Position Drafted GP PTS
C 2 66 22
LW 2 504 179
RW 0 0 0
D 6 1330 460
G 0 0 0
Unspecified 0 0 0
Total 10 1900 661
  • 4 of 10 players drafted in the 2nd round have played 100+ games in the NHL (40%)
  • Second round picks have played a total of 1900 games and accumulated 661 points (0.35 PPG)
  • Second round picks have an average of 66 points and 190 games played
  • Notable picks: Marc-Edouard Vlasic (35th, 2005), Matt Carle (47th, 2003), Jamie McGinn (36th, 2006), Matthew Nieto (47th, 2011)

THIRD ROUND PICKS

Position Drafted GP PTS
C 1 0 0
LW 0 0 0
RW 1 0 0
D 1 0 0
G 3 90 0
Unspecified 1 0 0
Total 7 90 0
  • 1 of 7 players drafted in the 3rd round have played 100+ games in the NHL (14%)
  • Third round picks have played a total of 90 games and accumulated 0 points (0.00 PPG)
  • Third round picks have an average of 0 points and 13 games played
  • Notable picks: Thomas Greiss (94th, 2004)
  • Greiss only has 89 NHL games played but was included as an exception

FOURTH TO NINTH ROUND PICKS

Position Drafted GP PTS
C 14 1766 828
LW 7 784 344
RW 8 59 6
D 22 1527 533
G 9 59 0
Unspecified 7 0 0
Total 67 4195 1711
  • 10 of 67 players drafted between the 4th and 9th rounds have played 100+ games in the NHL (15%)
  • Fourth to ninth round picks have played 4195 games and accumulated 1711 points (0.41 PPG)
  • Fourth to ninth round picks have an average of 30 points and 63 games played
  • Notable picks: Christian Ehrhoff (106th, 2001), Torrey Mitchell (126th, 2004), Alex Stalock (112th, 2005), Ryane Clowe (175th, 2001), Nick Bonino (173rd, 2007), Tommy Wingels (177th, 2008), Joe Pavelski (205th, 2003), Jason Demers (186th, 2008), Justin Braun (201st, 2007), Frazer McLaren (203rd, 2007), Derek Joslin (149th, 2005)

WHAT WE LEARNED

Since the 1st overall is very different from 30th overall I used this TSN article, which estimates a player’s probability of playing 100+ NHL games based off their round selection, to determined how well a team drafted in the first round relative to their pick placement. In other words, I determined if a team drafted well or poorly in the first round by comparing their success rate to the historical league average.

1st Round Pick Position # of Picks Probability of Success
1 – 5 0 96%
6 – 10 3 74%
11 – 15 0 54%
16 – 20 4 62%
21 – 30 4 58%

Between 2000 and 2012 the Sharks had three picks in the top 10 but none in the top five. Their other eight picks were in the latter half of the first round resulting in an expected success range of 61 to 67 percent.

Round Expected Success Rate Actual Success Rate
1 61 – 67% 64%
2 26 – 32% 40%
3 21 – 26% 14%
4+ 10 – 15% 15%

While the Sharks first round success rate of 64 percent may seem low compared to other teams they’ve actually drafted on par with expectation considering how late the majority of their picks have been. Their average points (138) and games played per player (286) rank 16th and 15th in the league. Their average draftee has a points per game of 0.48 which ranks 18th in the league. While San Jose’s first round drafting hasn’t exceeded expectations their draftees did perform comparably to the league average despite the majority of their picks being late in the first round.

The second round has been arguably San Jose’s best with 40 percent of draftees playing 100+ NHL games. Over the period studied the Sharks seem to favour drafting defensemen in the second round with 6 of their 10 picks being blueliners. The strategy has worked in their favour with the likes of Marc-Edouard Vlasic and Matt Carle emerging as top pairing contributors throughout their careers. Their average points per player ranks 9th and average games played ranks 4th best in the league.

The first time I calculated San Jose’s third round success rate I received an error message. The Sharks were the first team in my entire study to not have a single successful player come out of a round. Fortunately, after scanning the data for exceptions I found Thomas Greiss who didn’t meet the 100 game threshold but I decided to include him because he’s been a regular NHL backup since the 2009-10 season. Even with Greiss included their numbers for the third round are tough to swallow. Outside of Thomas Greiss, San Jose’s third round picks combined for 1 game played in the NHL. The positive for the Sharks is that they’ve only had 7 third round picks between 2000 and 2012, the lowest of all teams in the league. In comparison, the Blues had 19 picks and only three teams had less than 10. If I were a Sharks fan I wouldn’t be too worried about their lack of success as their numbers should even out with a few more picks.

In the depth rounds the Sharks have drafted 10 players that have played 100+ NHL games with 6 of those players scoring at least 100 career points. Christian Ehrhoff, Joe Pavelski, Jason Demers, and Ryan Clowe highlight a fairly lengthy list of successful San Jose draftees found in the fourth round or later. Their average draftee has 30 points and 63 games played which rank first and second league wide. Their average draftees points per game is 0.41 which ranks third highest in the league, cementing the Sharks as one of the best depth drafting teams in the league.

The below shows how the Sharks have stacked up against the league average in the major stat categories:

Category League Avg. San Jose Difference
Draftees 105 95 -10
100+ GP 22 22 +0
100+ GP (%) 23% 26% +3%
Total GP 8679 9328 +649
Skater PTS 3427 3893 +466
Skater PPG 0.41 0.42 +0.01
AVG PTS 37 47 +10
AVG GP 83 98 +15

The first thing that stands out to me is that the Sharks had 10 less picks than the league average between 2000 and 2012. In fact, the Sharks actually had the third least picks of all teams which makes it all the more impressive that they outperformed the league average in every stat category. Their success rate of 23 percent ties them for 10th highest in the league but their average points per player and games played rank 4th and 5th best. The Sharks have 14 players with 100+ career points showing that their drafting success isn’t due to one superstar but rather a bunch of great picks. As a whole the Sharks are an above average drafting team and should crack the top 10 in my final rankings.

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